A respiratory monitoring system includes (10) a mechanical ventilator (12) configurable to perform a ventilation mode in that includes an inhalation gas delivery phase and provides extrinsic positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) at a PEEP level during an exhalation phase. A breathing tubing circuit (26) includes: a patient port (28), a gas inlet line (16) connected to supply gas from the mechanical ventilator to the patient port, a gas flow meter (30) connected to measure gas flow into lungs of the patient, and a pressure sensor (32) connected to measure gas pressure at the patient port. At least one processor (38) is programmed to: compute a proxy pressure comprising an integral of gas flow into the lungs measured by the gas flow meter; and trigger the inhalation gas delivery phase of the ventilation mode when the proxy pressure decreases below a trigger pressure threshold.