Embodiments access a set of radiological images acquired from a population of subjects, where a member of the set of radiological images includes a left atrium (LA) region； construct a statistical shape differential atlas from the images； generate a template LA model from the statistical shape differential atlas, where the template LA model includes a site of interest (SOI)； acquire a pre-ablation radiological image of a region of tissue in a patient demonstrating atrial fibrillation (AF) pathology； generate a patient LA model from the pre-ablation image； compute a deformation field that registers the SOI to the patient LA model using deformable registration； compute a patient feature vector based on the deformation field； generate an AF probability score for the patient based on the feature vector； generate a classification of the patient based, at least in part, on the AF probability score； and display the classification or the AF probability score.
