A system and method for controlling and monitoring a diabetes-management system through the use of a model that predicts or estimates future dynamic states of glucose and insulin from variables such as insulin delivery or exogenous glucose appearance as well as inherent physiological parameters. The model predictive estimator can be used as an insulin bolus advisor to give an apriori estimate of postprandial glucose for a given insulin delivery profile administered with a known meal to optimize insulin delivery； as a supervisor to monitor the operation of the diabetes-management system； and as a model predictive controller to optimize the automated delivery of insulin into a user's body to achieve a desired blood glucose profile or concentration. Open loop, closed-loop, and semi-closed loop embodiments of the invention utilize a mathematical metabolic model that includes a Minimal Model, a Pump Delivery to Plasma Insulin Model, and a Meal Appearance Rate Model.
