The method involves determining a threshold value by combination of following variables such as age of patient, forced vital capacity and diffusion coefficient of carbon monoxide related to an alveolar volume, according to an equation comprising parameters such as a, b and c representing number of decimals independent of each other, where a, b and c represents decimal numbers equal to 0.0001107, 0.0207818 and 0.04905, respectively and the threshold value is of 2,732 indicating risk of occurrence of pulmonary arterial hypertension. An independent claim is also included for a kit for implementing a method for predicting a risk of occurrence of pulmonary arterial hypertension in a patient.