A system and method for modeling a blood glucose (BG) level of an individual is presented. A continuous glucose monitor (CGM) device is configured to monitor a blood glucose level of the individual. A processor is configured to receive CGM data of the individual from the CGM device, smooth the CGM data into a plurality of continuous curves, and generate an individual-level model of a BG profile of the individual using the plurality of continuous curves. The processor is configured to estimate the average blood glucose curve and inter-day variance-covariance of BG within the individual using the individual-level model, and generate a report based on the average blood glucose curve and inter-day variance-covariance of BG within the individual.
