The invention relates to methods of determining an appropriate chemotherapy for a subject based on expression levels of a TAK1 biomarker, such as one or more TAK1 biomarkers listed in Table 1, or any subset or combination thereof, e.g., a set of biomarkers consisting of or comprising GGH, BMP7, BAMBI, MBOAT2, HSPA12A, FYN, NAV2, RGL1, SYK and RUNX1 genes, optionally with one or both of INHBB and/or BMPR1A. In some embodiments, the biomarkers include one, two, three, or all of BMP7, BAMBI, BMPR1A, and INHBB. Kits useful for the methods are also provided.