Methods, systems and circuits evaluate a subjects risk of developing type 2 diabetes using defined mathematical models of short term risk (STR) and longer term risk of progression. The evaluations can stratify risk for patients having the same glucose measurement, particularly those with intermediate or low (normal) fasting plasma glucose (FPG) values. The STR or IR (insulin resistance) model(s) may include an inflammatory biomarker such as an NMR derived measurements of GlycA and a plurality of selected lipoprotein components of at least one biosample of the subject. Embodiments of the invention also provide methods, systems and circuits that generate STR scores as a marker of beta-cell dysfunction or impairment.
