A method for the early identification of recurrences of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease comprising the following steps of； measuring, with a predefined time frequency, a plurality of parameters that define the pulmonary function of a patient by means of the forced oscillation technique (FOT)； calculating the trend of said plurality of parameters in a predefined time period； identifying an impending recurrence by comparing the parameters describing said trend of said plurality of parameters with predefined thresholds； where the step of calculating the trend of said plurality of parameters is achieved by calculation of an N order polynomial regression model； and the step of identifying an impending recurrence by comparing said parameters describing said trend with predefined thresholds comprises the step of comparing at least one coefficient of the N order polynomial regression with predefined thresholds.
